Ghana’s economy gains momentum as non-oil sectors drive broad-based expansion
WMI ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
GHANA’S ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM AS NON-OIL SECTORS DRIVE BROAD-BASED EXPANSION
Q4 2025 GDP REVIEW: IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTORS, BUSINESSES, AND POLICYMAKERS
Executive Summary
Ghana entered 2026 with stronger economic momentum than many market participants anticipated. Fourth-quarter GDP data released by the Ghana Statistical Service indicate that economic activity accelerated meaningfully, supported by robust expansion across services, agriculture, manufacturing, and technology-driven sectors. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 5.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from 4.0% in the corresponding period of 2024. More significantly, Non-Oil GDP grew by 7.1%, highlighting the growing importance of domestic demand and non-extractive sectors as drivers of economic growth. The data reinforce a critical shift underway within Ghana’s economy: growth is becoming increasingly diversified, less dependent on extractive industries, and more closely tied to services, technology, logistics, manufacturing, and consumer activity. For investors, the implications are clear. The sectors generating the strongest growth today are likely to be the sectors attracting capital, generating earnings growth, and creating investment opportunities over the medium term.
Investment Thesis
Three key themes emerge from Ghana’s Quarter 4 2025 GDP figures:
-
Ghana’s Growth Story Is Becoming Increasingly Non-Oil
While oil production continues to face structural and operational challenges, the broader economy is demonstrating resilience. Oil and Gas output contracted by 16.8%, while Mining and Quarrying declined by 1.5% during the quarter. Yet despite these headwinds, overall GDP growth accelerated to 5.8%, underscoring the growing contribution of non-extractive sectors. This represents a significant development for Ghana’s long-term economic outlook. Historically, fluctuations in commodity production have heavily influenced economic performance. The latest data suggest the economy is gradually reducing this dependence.
Figure 1: Key Economic Highlights
(Source: Extracted from GSS statistical newsletter, 2025)
WMI View
A more diversified economy is inherently more resilient. As growth broadens across multiple sectors, Ghana becomes less vulnerable to commodity price shocks, production disruptions, and external volatility.
-
Digital Transformation Is Emerging as a Major Growth Engine
The standout performer during the quarter was the Information and Communication sector, which expanded by an exceptional 28.3% year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing segment of the economy. This growth reflects structural shifts that extend far beyond telecommunications. The expansion is being driven by: Increased digital adoption by businesses, Continued growth in mobile money transactions, Expansion of fintech ecosystems, Greater internet penetration and Rising demand for digital financial services.
WMI View
The digital economy is no longer a supporting sector—it is becoming a core pillar of Ghana’s future growth model. Investors seeking long-term opportunities should increasingly monitor: Telecommunications companies, Digital payment platforms, Financial technology providers, Data infrastructure investments and Enterprise software and technology services. The strongest growth opportunities over the next decade may emerge from Ghana’s digital transformation rather than its traditional commodity sectors.
-
Services Continue to Anchor Economic Expansion
The Services sector accounted for 50.6% of GDP and contributed nearly two-thirds of total economic growth during the quarter. The sector expanded by 8.6%, significantly outperforming both Agriculture and Industry. Several sub-sectors recorded double-digit growth (See Figure 2).
Figure 2: Services: The Engine of the Economy
(Source: Extracted from GSS statistical newsletter, 2025)
The breadth of growth across service industries suggests increasing domestic economic activity and improving business confidence.
WMI View
Services have become Ghana’s primary growth engine. This has important implications for investors because service-led economies typically generate stronger employment growth, higher productivity gains, and more stable earnings than economies dependent primarily on commodity production.
Manufacturing Signals Improving Business Confidence
Manufacturing expanded by 6.1%, significantly outperforming the broader Industry sector, which recorded growth of 1.9%. The improvement suggests that businesses are responding positively to easing macroeconomic pressures, improving consumer demand, and greater economic stability. Historically, manufacturing growth tends to lead improvements in employment, investment spending, and corporate profitability.
WMI View
If sustained, the recovery in manufacturing could become one of the most important investment themes in Ghana over the next several years. Investors should monitor companies exposed to: Consumer goods, Industrial production, Logistics, Packaging and Construction materials.
Market Implications
Fixed Income
Stronger economic growth improves government revenue prospects and strengthens debt sustainability metrics.
For fixed-income investors, sustained growth supports confidence in sovereign securities and may reinforce expectations of continued macroeconomic stabilization.
Equities
GDP growth ultimately translates into earnings growth. The sectors most likely to benefit include: Banking, Telecommunications, Consumer goods, Logistics, Financial services and Education.
Currency Outlook
The strong performance of non-oil sectors enhances Ghana’s capacity to generate domestic economic activity and reduce excessive dependence on commodity exports. If accompanied by fiscal discipline and continued inflation moderation, this trend could support medium-term stability in the Ghana Cedi.
WMI Outlook: 2026
The latest GDP figures suggest Ghana entered 2026 with stronger economic momentum than at any point since the post-crisis recovery began. We expect: Continued expansion in services, Sustained growth in digital and technology-related sectors, Improving private-sector confidence, Gradual strengthening of manufacturing activity and Increased investor interest in non-oil growth sectors.
The key question for investors is no longer whether Ghana’s economy is recovering. The key question is whether policymakers can sustain the reforms necessary to transform cyclical recovery into long-term structural growth. At present, the data suggest that Ghana is moving in the right direction.
Bottom Line
Ghana’s Q4 2025 GDP report provides compelling evidence that the economy is becoming more diversified, more resilient, and increasingly driven by services, technology, and domestic demand. While risks remain—including public debt pressures, exchange-rate volatility, and weakness in the extractive sector—the underlying growth story is becoming increasingly attractive. For investors, the most promising opportunities are likely to emerge not from traditional commodity sectors, but from industries positioned to benefit from digital transformation, rising consumer activity, and structural economic modernization.